In fantasy basketball drafts, certain players are more valuable than others. These players are more likely to yield a better outcome on your fantasy team. So, while it might seem like those guys are worth the most in your draft, there might be other players that should be picked earlier that will end up outperforming them in your championship. The 2020-2021 season starts tomorrow and New Life Fantasy Staff has a list that may be uncomfortable for some. Let's begin!
Luka Doncic: ADP 2.4
Picking Luka within the first 3 picks of round 1 is just crazy. Seems like people doesn’t mind his .758 FT%, 4.3 TO, and less than 1 BLK and STL averages. His upside is undeniable, but are we
expecting our Wonder Boy to average 30/10/10 this season? Don’t get us wrong, we love Luka and we believe he is still a first-rounder, but we can also make a strong case for 5 other players
that we would pick ahead of him based on per-game averages and totals. Pick 9 and beyond is the sweetest spot to get the best value out of Doncic. - Roi Ciruela
Trae Young Avg: ADP 10.3
I know, I know. This seems like I'm nitpicking but getting Trae as a first-round pick sounds too rich for my blood. Why? Trae's Usage rate was 30.2 last season. Projected Usage is 36.2 this season based on ESPN. No Way. That team is loaded with young talent and more mouths to feed than ever before.Plus Rajon Rondo can eat into the assist/minute rate as I can see Trae playing off-ball more. Don't get me wrong this may help with his percentages, but I see his numbers taking a step back this year. Plus in 9 Cat Leagues, he almost certainly destroys you in the Turnover Category. If your Punting Turnovers then decide that in the second round.
Pick a Solid all Around performer Early then pull the trigger on Trae after the first round turn.
Just my thoughts though! - Lawrence Turner
Bam Adebayo: ADP 16 Yahoo
We all love Bam in the Fantasy Basketball Community. This might be too much love. In the last 7 games from the 2019-2020 season, averaged 13 Pts 7 Rebs 5 Ast 1 Blk FG% 45 AND .700 FT%. This was good for 12th round value. We don't expect him to play that bad during this upcoming season. The emergence of Tyler Herro can also damper his value for shot attempts on the team. Although, Heat is pretty good at spreading the ball around. So in hindsight, could help Bam's value since he is a big that can distribute the ball well. Either way, it's something to think about for a player that finished 44th overall in 9 Cat Leagues. A guy that is selected early second round in most drafts. The talent is there, but 16th overall production seems a little distant for this year. Give me Ayton instead - M. Starks Powell
John Collins: ADP 24.3
Collins averaged 20 and 10 with more than 1 block, steal, three, and assist last season which is very juicy, so why is he overvalued? If there is a clear answer to the lingering question on how he could replicate those stats despite having a solid defensive big in Clint Capela plus 2 more customers eating in the usage store in Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari – then its crystal clear that banking on Collins to be that fringe 1st round value guy might not be a very good idea at least for this season. - Roi Ciruela
Brandon Ingram: (Yahoo ADP 30)
Ingram had the best statistical season of his young career, averaging 23.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 1.0 steals on 46% shooting. Ingram was a Top-10 fantasy player through the first four months of the season, but that changed once Zion Williamson returned from injury. Ingram’s stats took a dive across the board during the last four months of the season. Through the first 39 games of the 2019-2020 season, Ingram was averaging 25.6 points, 2.5 three-pointers, 6.7 rebounds, 0.9 steals, and 0.8 blocks on 48% field-goal shooting. In the 23 games playing alongside Zion, Ingrams stats dipped to 20.8 points, 2.3 three-pointers 5.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists on 43% field-goal shooting. While his second-half stats look good on paper, it was a far cry from his dominant first half. With Zion having a full offseason to get acclimated to his teammates, Ingram will have a tough time matching his usage percentage from last season. Ingram is still worthy of a Top-50 pick, but at his current ADP price, I’d rather have players like Fred VanVleet, De’Aaron Fox, and D’Angelo Russell who are going after him in fantasy drafts. - Jacob Dunne
TJ Warren: ADP 62.6
Well, this might be a lost cause as TJ is dealing with a week-to-week foot injury to start the season. People are more cautious in drafting Warren compared to the previous weeks where he is being picked as early as the 4th round. The so-called MVP Bubble created a strong image to Basketball fans that made most people forget about why he had so much usage in the bubble. No Sabonis, No Lamb plus Oladipo and Brogdon are not playing 100% healthy. He is a legit scorer and a type ofplayer that thrives from the bigger role and larger minutes – but, we don’t believe 34 Points, 60% from deep and 55%, FG% is sustainable 72 games. - Roi Ciruela
Wendell Carter Jr.: ADP 82 Yahoo
This has to be the year that WCJ finishes inside the Top 100. Centers start to dry up quickly around this time of the draft. There are players that you could pivot towards like, Draymond Green, Blake Griffin, Demarcus Cousins, and Marvin Bagley to name a few. Riddled with injuries most of his career and not playing well in this preseason hasn't helped his stock. We would assume his ADP would fall, but it has stayed similar to last year. Maybe he can beat his ADP at 82 this year, but it doesn't seem likely. A low usage rate of 16.4% last year. 2018 Rookie Year he had a higher usage rate at 19%. The usage rate monster of Zach Lavine is only growing along with his new backcourt mate Coby White. Once a high Dynasty draft selection after flashes showed his rookie season. Dynasty GM's should remain patient with him, but it's starting to get difficult currently. - M. Starks Powell
Kemba Walker: ADP 88.3
It’s hard to give a solid value to a player that would not start the season healthy and will miss about a month or so then might get rested during b2b in a very compressed season. Cardiac Kemba was never the same after getting several knee injuries in his career. We might be wrong but with his age and with Boston’s system and Rookie pickups, it seems like they are embracing the idea that Kemba’s performance is on a decline. Take note that Kemba is several picks away from Markelle Fultz whom we would take ahead of him all day. - Roi Ciruela
Jarrett Allen: ADP 110
The revamped Brooklyn Nets was created with the influence of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. And a big part of their deal is to play with their BFF – DeAndre Jordan. Last season, Kenny Atkinson paved the way for Jaret Allen as their starting center. It was a no-brainer decision as Allen is a really good player but unfortunately for Jarret, Atkinson just got fired a couple of months ago. Despite getting some news from Nash that the center position is still up for grabs, it is really hard to trust Allen’s value with several good centers that have clearer roles available beyond pick 100. Roi Ciruela
Obi Toppin: ADP 129.7
We can end the discussion with just one name – Tom Thibodeau. That’s it. Historically,
Thibs does not play rookies big minutes. As much as we admire this kid’s potential, he is not the
player people are expecting him to be – at least based on his Pre-Season performances. Knicks
roster is far from the best in the NBA but Toppin isn’t that good as well to just take over Randle’s spot. In the later rounds, we highly recommend drafting either Bazley, PWilliams, Okoro or
Pokusevski as your upside pick rather than roll the dice with Obi. - Roi Ciruela
Written By New Life Fantasy Staff
Feel free to ask us any fantasy or real-life questions here on the website or on Twitter.
Don't forget to subscribe to NewLifeFantasy.com mailing list and sign up as a member for FREE to get all updates from us. Also, please subscribe to Take A Ride Podcast and to our YouTube Channel. It helps us keep the site, podcast, and YouTube channel going.