Tight End Unrealistic Expectations
Earlier in the week, I posted a "Way Too Early Bust Prediction" article. This article is going to be another way-too-early prediction about a position that is very thin, to say the least. Many fantasy owners know what position I'm talking about - tight end. If you're looking for the next Darren Waller, I've got two words for you: Hayden Hurst.
Hayden Hurst is a former '18 first-round pick. With the emergence of Mark Andrews last season, an '18 third-round pick, Hurst became expendable. First, let me start by congratulating the Ravens for selling high on this guy. They turned Hurst and a fourth-round pick into a second-round and fifth-round pick. The Ravens organization certainly pulled off a caper getting that for a guy who only saw 39 targets last season while his fellow tight end saw a whopping 98.
I know, it sounds like I'm dumping on Hurst and you're probably asking, "Drew, are you sure you're high on this guy this season?". The answer is a resounding, YES!!! Nothing up until this point has given us any indication that Hurst will be a baller. There is something he has that know no one else does and that's Dirk Koetter. You might recall that I have serious questions about Austin Hooper being a top tight end after signing with Cleveland because his volume share will undoubtedly be going down. Fantasy isn't always about the best player. It's a volume game.
Let me paint a picture for you. If Julio Jones, one of the greatest wide receivers of all-time, was playing for an old-school, smash-mouth coach who wants to run the ball down opposing defenses throats, he wouldn't see very many looks. You can't get 100 receptions if you're only getting 80 targets. That same scenario could be used for a tight end who might not be the greatest, but in a pass-happy offense where the defense has to contend with the likes of Julio, Calvin Ridley, and Todd Gurley II it could very well open a plethora of looks for a guy like Hurst.
The beautiful thing about a pick like this is you have virtually no risk and a very high reward. Hurst is the TE36 with an average draft position of 179 via Fantasy Pros. The volume share that he should see makes taking this "risk" a no-brainer. Keep in mind as of now he is the Falcons' leading tight end. They didn't give up a second-rounder to see him play second fiddle. If he can maintain that title, I truly feel he could blow up and benefit fantasy owners at a position that's as limited as toilet paper is right now.
At the end of the day, this is nothing more than a gut feeling. We all know there's no science to this thing called fantasy football. You can research all the numbers you want and make moves that make 'sense' and still get burned. You will get burned more often than not. That's what we love about fantasy.